Survey Analysis: 3,505 New Palo Alto Homes. September 18, 2007
Written by Steve Raney
Survey and Housing Allocation Information can be found at: http://www.cities21.org/pa/index.htm
The survey effort has succeeded in raising the visibility of this important issue. 221 people have answered the survey. We have seen increased newspaper coverage of this topic, with both sides of the issue explained.
Background:
By September 25, Palo Alto and all the cities in the Bay Area will be giving feedback to the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) about the number of homes that each city is expected to build in the next eight years. Palo Alto's allocation (3,505) has been raised substantially from the last round (1999-2006), because the new allocation criteria stress job levels, job growth and transit access. This is a very controversial subject. This survey was designed to gather data on attitudes and ideas about this issue facing Palo Alto.
The State Housing and Community Development (HCD) Department requires regions to forecast future population growth. HCD approves each regional forecast and then requires regions to allocate the growth among individual cities. ABAG pursues relatively laudable goals in their allocation such as minimizing traffic congestion, pollution, and global warming. ABAG creates a rational, impartial procedure for their allocation. ABAG is an organization that represents Bay Area city governments, so it is not valid to argue that ABAG is out to harm individual Bay Area cities. The fact that most Bay Area cities are unhappy with ABAG’s allocation supports the idea that ABAG has a fair, if unpopular, process. The conflict is much more basic: the region is growing but most cities do not want to grow as fast as the region. It’s hard to find a villain in this conflict.
The state Climate Action Team sets statewide climate protection policy and has influenced the allocations. For Palo Alto, the Climate Action Team’s “smart growth” policy can be summarized as: “build lots of dense housing for Palo Alto workers by the Caltrain stations.” Compared to the 1999-2006 allocation, Palo Alto may have been given the largest percentage increase of any city.
At this stage in the ABAG process, it may be difficult for Palo Alto to reduce the 3,505 home ABAG allocation substantially. However, the state and ABAG have very limited influence over actual homebuilding in Palo Alto. For the 1999-2006 allocation, Menlo Park built only 6% of their allocation and Atherton built only 15%. It is possible that Palo Alto will avoid building most of the 3,505 homes while receiving no “punishment” from ABAG or the state.
Why the Survey?
Three of the authors work on regional planning and sustainability efforts. The CA state Climate Action Team is counting on smart growth (jobs/housing balance, density, and transit oriented development) for a huge portion of carbon dioxide reduction to reach 2020 target levels. Palo Alto Council have been climate protection leaders, championing many green efforts. Starting in January, council members began to make statements in local newspapers in favor of restricting housing growth. One councilmember said “my top 2007 issues are restricting the amount of housing constructed … and combating global warming." The Climate Action Team has found that this statement is contradictory – efforts to restrict housing growth in Palo Alto will harm the climate significantly.
Hence, for a number of reasons, it made sense for the survey authors to encourage a more extensive discussion of the 3.505 home ABAG allocation for Palo Alto. Some climate protection actions are “convenient,” in that they are politically popular. The 3,505 home allocation is “inconvenient,” in that it is not politically popular. But the Climate Action Team is depending on smart growth for the second largest contribution to carbon reduction for 2020. Uniquely in the U.S., state Attorney General Jerry Brown is suing ultra-long-commute sprawl. The battles to stop long-commute housing and to encourage short-commute Palo Alto housing represent the two sides of the same smart growth effort.
The State Climate Action Team and the State Housing and Community Development Department have make the broad policy recommendation that have led to ABAG asking Palo Alto to add 3,505 homes, but Palo Alto has sole authority to either abide by this policy recommendation or to “tell ABAG to stuff it.” Given Council’s and voters fervent desire to protect the climate, it made sense to probe whether Palo Alto would support “inconvenient” policies. Palo Alto serves as an early test case for affluent American suburbia.
Recommendation 1
The affluent South Bay cities that are unhappy with their housing allocations {Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Atherton, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Redwood City} should sponsor one or more ABAG forums on the topic. ABAG should be invited to explain regional trends, their objectives, and their formulas. ABAG should also explain how they expect cities to mitigate the impacts of this growth (school funding, traffic, city services, water, etc). Survey responses indicate disagreement over facts, planning theory, and policies, so more dialog will help lead to more informed decision-making. It is clear that Palo Alto’s voters must become more “land-use conversant” for important issues that will come up over the next 40 years. Palo Alto, with its leadership position on climate protection, enjoys a strong relationship with California’s Climate Action Team. The Climate Team should also be invited to defend their smart growth policy (density, TOD, job/housing balance) and to explain the role smart grow plays in achieving 2020 carbon reductions. Entities such as the Palo Alto Chamber, League of Women Voters, and SVLG could be co-sponsors for such forums. More questions that should be covered in forums:
The survey reveals that jobs/housing balance is a concept that is not fully understood. Please explain the concept.
Why can't we simply meet 2020 carbon reductions with light bulbs and hybrid cars?
Please explain whether Palo Alto is “built out” or not.
Is there really a "free market" for housing?
Please explain what sorts of residents pay the most (and the least) for city services. What is the fiscal impact of various housing types? How many school children are produced for each new unit of various housing types?
Are all developers more evil than Voldemort, or are they only as evil as Death Eaters? Do the sprawl developers and in-fill developers speak with a unified voice? Who is ABAG? Is ABAG a tool of these development interests?
How do we make public transit work better? How much can telecommuting contribute?
What would be the economic consequences of stopping Bay Area population growth? Would a permanent depression ensue?
If Palo Alto tells ABAG to stuff it, what will the consequences and penalties be? What funding sources will be closed off to Palo Alto (FOCUS?)?
Is ABAG's housing allocation an unfunded mandate?
Recommendation 2
Council should a) acknowledge the strong Global Warming <==> Land Use link, b) indicate willingness to explore creative solutions (citing past and recent Palo Alto innovations), and c) ask ABAG, HCD, Climate Action Team, and other suburbs to fund a “Creative Housing Allocation Implementation Study / Housing Element Update Study.” Such a study should explore three or more implementation scenarios, with economic impact analysis. The survey’s Scenario 1 (tell ABAG to stuff if) and Scenario 2 (add 3,505 homes while creatively mitigating negative impacts) might be worth studying.
Survey Analysis
The multiple choice answers are very interesting. One measure of the passion for these issues is the willingness of respondents to spend the time to write essay answers. The sentiments in the essay answers for most questions run roughly 55% reflecting a neighborhood protection perspective, and 45% reflecting a regionalism perspective.
There was only a smattering of viewpoints advocating zero world population growth or even world population reduction. World population is not top-of-mind for most Palo Altans.
Silicon Valley is a hot belt of entrepreneurial capitalism, but Palo Altans have mixed feelings about the local "capitalistic growth imperative," where local employment continues to expand. There is no ambiguity about capitalism's real-estate development sector - every respondent seems to hate developers. There is widespread support for reducing the profits of these "greedy developers."
Item by Item Survey Analysis is available below. Click on "view" to see every essay response for that item:
|
Thanks for taking
this short survey.
Please provide name and either e-mail address or phone number below. We do not accept anonymous responses as they are less thoughtful and less polite.
|
| 1. Name: | ||
|
|
Response Count | |
|
|
answered question | 221 |
|
|
skipped question |
0 |
| 2. Please provide a valid e-mail address or phone number: | ||
|
|
Response Count | |
|
|
answered question | 221 |
|
|
skipped question |
0 |
| 3. Select your neighborhood or school community: |
| Neighborhood/Community | Count | Neighborhood/Community | Count |
| Crescent Park | 39 | Community Center | 1 |
| Duveneck/St. Francis | 34 | Embarcadero Oaks/Leland | 1 |
| Midtown | 21 | Esther Clark Park | 1 |
| Downtown North | 16 | Fairmeadow | 1 |
| Barron Park | 15 | Meadow Park | 1 |
| Palo Verde | 13 | Monroe Park | 1 |
| Old Palo Alto | 10 | South of Midtown | 1 |
| Other city | 10 | Triple El | 1 |
| Charleston Gardens | 6 | Ventura | 1 |
| Greenmeadow | 5 | Other Palo Alto neighborhood | 1 |
| Leland Manor/Garland Drive | 5 | Duveneck School | 1 |
| Evergreen Park | 4 | El Carmelo School | 1 |
| Professorville | 4 | Jordan Middle School | 1 |
| University South | 4 | Juana Briones School | 1 |
| Charleston Meadows | 3 | Palo Alto High School | 1 |
| Mountain View (city) | 3 | Palo Verde School | 1 |
| Adobe-Meadows | 2 | Terman Middle School | 1 |
| Green Acres | 2 | Los Altos Hills (city) | 1 |
| Palo Alto Hills | 2 | Stanford (city) | 1 |
| Menlo Park (city) | 2 | Woodside (city) | 1 |
| College Terrace | 1 |
|
Bay Area job growth is expected to lead to an
increase of at least two million residents in the next 30 years. While lower
levels of population growth might make traffic and environmental protection
easier to handle, continued growth is expected by the Association of Bay Area
Governments (ABAG) and other organizations that study the Bay Area's future. The Bay Area's economy is expected to grow a bit more rapidly than the nation as a whole. |
| 4. (OPTIONAL): Please provide any comments you have about this Bay Area population growth: | ||||
|
|
Response Count | |||
|
123 | |||
|
|
answered question | 123 | ||
|
|
skipped question |
98 | ||
Selected Responses to #4:
| Because of the Bay Area’s expected population
growth, the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) has asked Palo Alto and
Stanford to add a total of 3,505 new homes by 2014. Many Bay Area cities besides
Palo Alto have been asked to add significantly to their population, and almost
all of these cities are unhappy about this request (especially Menlo Park,
Atherton, Cupertino, Piedmont, Pleasanton, and Larkspur). ABAG's policy is to encourage new development in and around existing city and suburban centers with an emphasis on reducing overall car traffic, preserving open space and reducing the percent of workers living outside the region. |
| 5. “It will be very hard to accommodate 3,505 new homes in Palo Alto” | |||
|
|
Response Percent |
Response Count | |
| strongly agree |
|
57.0% | 126 |
| agree |
|
22.2% | 49 |
| neutral |
|
4.5% | 10 |
| disagree |
|
9.5% | 21 |
| strongly disagree |
|
6.8% | 15 |
|
|
answered question | 221 | |
|
|
skipped question |
0 | |
| 6. “Building these 3,505 homes in Palo Alto will make a contribution to reducing global warming and regional traffic” | |||
|
|
Response Percent |
Response Count | |
| strongly agree |
|
14.9% | 33 |
| agree |
|
18.6% | 41 |
| neutral |
|
16.7% | 37 |
| disagree |
|
16.3% | 36 |
| strongly disagree |
|
33.5% | 74 |
|
|
answered question | 221 | |
|
|
skipped question |
0 | |
| 7. “Building these 3,505 homes in Palo Alto and in cities like Palo Alto in the region will increase our attractiveness for innovative companies to locate in the Valley. These homes will also help companies retain valued employees.” | |||
|
|
Response Percent |
Response Count | |
| strongly agree |
|
15.4% | 34 |
| agree |
|
25.8% | 57 |
| neutral |
|
16.7% | 37 |
| disagree |
|
22.6% | 50 |
| strongly disagree |
|
19.5% | 43 |
|
|
answered question | 221 | |
|
|
skipped question |
0 | |
| 8. "Adding these 3,505 homes will increase pressure on the schools, roads, libraries and other public facilities" | |||
|
|
Response Percent |
Response Count | |
| strongly agree |
|
70.6% | 156 |
| agree |
|
21.7% | 48 |
| neutral |
|
4.1% | 9 |
| disagree |
|
2.7% | 6 |
| strongly disagree |
|
0.9% | 2 |
|
|
answered question | 221 | |
|
|
skipped question |
0 | |
| 9. "Palo Alto residents have some obligation to plan for these homes as part of supporting regional environmental and economic goals" | |||
|
|
Response Percent |
Response Count | |
| strongly agree |
|
22.2% | 49 |
| agree |
|
27.2% | 60 |
| neutral |
|
13.6% | 30 |
| disagree |
|
15.4% | 34 |
| strongly disagree |
|
21.7% | 48 |
|
|
answered question | 221 | |
|
|
skipped question |
0 | |
Weekly Editor Jay Thorwaldson started as a Palo Alto Times reporter in 1966, has covered ABAG, and has encyclopedic knowledge of historical Palo Alto land use decisions. Jay wrote a 1968 article on Palo Alto's jobs/housing imbalance, with 2.4 jobs for every household in those days. Jay’s take on Palo Alto’s current jobs/housing imbalance: “Well-intentioned and environmentally conscious Palo Alto has restricted housing to create a terrible environmental situation with long commutes wasting fuel. It’s an insoluble situation. Long commutes damage the social fabric and create lower quality of life. Workers are forced to commute from Manteca, etc. Palo Alto has a drawbridge mentality. Compounding the insolubility, objections raised by neighborhood associations are legitimate.”
| 10. (OPTIONAL) Please provide any comments you have about questions or your answers on this page: | ||||
|
|
Response Count | |||
|
109 | |||
|
|
answered question | 109 | ||
|
|
skipped question |
112 | ||
Many of the essay responses to #11 might be well-received at a dinner party within Palo Alto, but might seem appalling to non-Palo Altans who live in cities facing greater challenges. It is doubtful that Palo Alto's answers differ much from those of any other affluent place, it's just that these underlying neighborhood protection attitudes rarely surface with this level of detail.
Selected Responses to #11:
| You are now at the end of the traditional
part of the survey. The questions on this page cover "visioning scenarios"
and are optional. (One of the survey authors has a special interest in such
scenarios.)
SCENARIO 1: By 2014, Palo Alto stays pretty much the same as in 2007. The 3,505 new homes are built in Manteca, Modesto, and Merced, not in Palo Alto. Cities such as Menlo Park, Atherton, and Cupertino also avoid their unpopular housing allocations. Palo Alto traffic levels stay the same, but regional auto usage increases. By year 2020, California GHG (greenhouse gas) levels are 33% more than 1990 levels. |
| 12. (OPTIONAL): Please rate Scenario 1 | |||
|
|
Response Percent |
Response Count | |
| 1 (very good) |
|
8.3% | 15 |
| 2 |
|
6.7% | 12 |
| 3 |
|
3.9% | 7 |
| 4 (neutral) |
|
17.2% | 31 |
| 5 |
|
11.7% | 21 |
| 6 |
|
18.9% | 34 |
| 7 (very bad) |
|
33.3% | 60 |
|
|
answered question | 180 | |
|
|
skipped question |
41 | |
| 13. (OPTIONAL): Please add any comments you have about Scenario 1: | ||||
|
|
Response Count | |||
|
106 | |||
|
|
answered question | 106 | ||
|
|
skipped question |
115 | ||
About half of essay respondents questioned Scenario 1's assumptions or commented that the scenario was biased.
Selected Responses to #13
| SCENARIO 2:
Palo Alto adds 3,505 new "innovative growth"
homes by 2014. |
| 14. (OPTIONAL): Please rate Scenario 2 | |||
|
|
Response Percent |
Response Count | |
| 1 (very good) |
|
32.2% | 57 |
| 2 |
|
15.8% | 28 |
| 3 |
|
10.7% | 19 |
| 4 (neutral) |
|
13.0% | 23 |
| 5 |
|
5.7% | 10 |
| 6 |
|
10.7% | 19 |
| 7 (very bad) |
|
11.9% | 21 |
|
|
answered question | 177 | |
|
|
skipped question |
44 | |
| 15. (OPTIONAL): Please add any comments you have about Scenario 2: | ||||
|
|
Response Count | |||
|
118 | |||
|
|
answered question | 118 | ||
|
|
skipped question |
103 | ||
Scenario 2 is an attempt at a win/win scenario that is empathetic to the neighborhood protectors as was as to regional interests. It asks, "what if we could grow without negative impacts?" Is there a solution that a majority of Palo Altans would be either in favor of or neutral to? If Recommendation 2 is followed and Scenario 2 is found to be financially feasible, then responses to #15 indicate that such growth is palatable to Palo Altans.
More than half of essay respondents questioned Scenario 2's assumptions.
Selected Responses to #15: